This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions. N. Nambia drought conditions. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov.
July 2019 El Niño update: I think I’ll go for a walk. After several months of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, the atmosphere responded with weak El Niño conditions, similar to 2015. Likely in part due to the slowing winds, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Niño3.4 monitoring region increased to ~1°C warmer than average during February, reversing some cooling that had taken place in January. SWCO Editor, Assistant Research Professor; UA. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is regarded as one of the most important factors for onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM). They called for a 60-percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions to continue into Fall 2019. Even with now and then having so much in common, it’s far too soon to tell. During most of February, the winds near the surface of the central Pacific were substantially slower than normal. However, during the first week of May, as the MJO moved into the Pacific, the trade winds weakened substantially in the west-central Pacific. While they use different specific locations, both indexes compare the atmospheric pressure in the far western Pacific to that in the east-central Pacific. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/enso-climate-change-headache, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/climate-change-and-enso-take-2, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/challenges-enso-today%E2%80%99s-climate-models. 4). So are we in for another 2015-style strong El Niño? The swing towards ENSO-neutral was tied to the rapid dissipation of warmer waters in the ocean, and a return to mostly normal atmospheric conditions. Historical global temperature and rain patterns during El Niño in the spring show less rain than average over a lot of the tropics, for example. These patterns continued over the past few weeks, with the dry-Indonesia/rainy-central-Pacific pattern showing up clearly in the cloud patterns. Heat content has been elevated for the last 12 months, but recently increased again.
It can circle the globe in about 30-60 days.
Also, wind patterns and heat content in March are not very powerful predictors of fall El Niño patterns. Excellent scientific advise on ELNINO 2019. Thank you for reading us—we’ve had well over 2 million unique page views so far—otherwise, we’d just be yelling into the (trade) winds. Climate model forecasts for the Niño3.4 Index. Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. Near-surface wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S) during 2018, starting at the top in September 2018 and ending in early March 2019 at the bottom.
Weather dried out late Jan at Victoria falls. I recommend reading some of our past posts on the topic. We’ve learned a lot over the past 60 months, and we hope you have, too. When the trade winds slow, they allow the surface waters to warm, and can sometimes kick off or enhance a downwelling Kelvin wave, a large area of warm water that slides from the west to the east under the surface. This slight weakening of the typical El Niño signal is in part due to a reawakening Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the second half of April.
If the recent weakening in the trade winds does lead to a downwelling Kelvin wave and increases the subsurface anomalies, it could provide fuel to help this El Niño event to persist. Notify me of follow-up comments by email.
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